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Feeling the heat? This summer could break records

Summer officially begins on the Summer Solstice – between June 20 and 22 – when the sun reaches its highest point in the sky; however, many are already experiencing hotter temperatures.

This April was Earth’s warmest on record, and the U.S. could experience even more record-breaking temperatures over the next few months. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) releases new climate predictions every 90 days and the latest one shows hotter-than-normal temperatures in almost every single state.

The only part of the U.S. that is expected to have cooler-than-average temperatures is southwestern Alaska. Parts of North and South Dakota, Minnesota and Iowa all have equal chances of summer being normal, hotter, or cooler than average.

This summer could rival last summer, which was Earth’s hottest since global records started back in 1880, according to NASA. Then there was a tie between the summer of 2021 and the summer of 1936, which was also known as the Dust Bowl.

It is also expected to be an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, which begins on June 1.

NOAA predicts as many as 25 named storms for 2024, which is the most the agency has ever predicted in a pre-season outlook. Specifically, experts forecast between 17 and 25 total named storms with winds of 39 MPH or higher. Of those, 8 to 13 are expected to become hurricanes, which have winds of 74 MPH or higher, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes of category 3, 4 or 5.

For context, there were 20 named storms in 2023, which was the fourth most active season on record.

Based on data from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The first named storm typically happens in mid-to-late June, the first hurricane in early to mid-August and the first major hurricane in late August or early September.

This season is expected to be more extreme for a few reasons, one being the record-warm temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean. La Niña conditions are also expected in the Pacific Ocean, which increases the number of hurricanes that develop and allow stronger storms to form. This is because La Niña causes less wind shear in the Atlantic, and wind shear can essentially break storms apart.

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Reinaldo Massengill

Update: 2024-05-31